How can humanity survive another industrial revolution?
Introduction
According to the World Economic Forum, we are on the cusp of another industrial revolution, the fourth in the series [1]. The first three have helped improve the quality of life for countless people around the world by automating a great deal of (often very dangerous) manual labour, which has gradually freed an increasing number of people to find ways to address fundamental human needs, such as the provision of food and clean water, shelter, sanitation and hygiene, medicines, etc…
However, these achievements have come at an immense cost - one that is now threatening our very existence. Some scientists believe the most likely outcome, with over 90% certainty, is a catastrophic collapse of civilisation [2]. Global warming, species/biodiversity loss, and pandemics are all consequences of the first three industrial revolutions. How can we ensure that we survive another?
The answer is “it depends” - in this case, mostly on whether or not we are capable of learning from the (mostly unintended) consequences of the first three industrial revolutions. The behavioural changes required to tame some of our patterns of excessive consumption so that we return to live within the (very real) finite constraints provided by our planetary home will require a radical shift in our collective thinking and the narratives we hold dear. Indeed, this shift will be large enough to warrant the term ‘revolution’ - but one focused on our hearts and minds, rather than our hands. As such, I believe an apt name for this type of shift is the Wisdom Revolution. [3]
Wisdom
What do I mean by a Wisdom Revolution? Let’s start with ‘wisdom’. Professor Geoff Mulgan from University College London recently published a draft paper that proposes a new model for wisdom that moves the discourse on wisdom forward in a number of significant ways. [4] The key elements or dimensions in this model are cleverness, knowledge, ethics, the long view, and presence - though it’s important to note that "Wisdom is most likely to be recognised where there is a combination of all of these five”. (p. 15) However, the most important features of his new model are the outcome feedback loops that involve integrative judgement to continuously and iteratively refine our decisions and actions.
Geoff shared his draft proposal "to encourage critical comment and feedback”. My feedback was based on my PhD research and the work I am doing with First (i.e. Indigenous) Australians. I believe that there is much we can learn from First Australian ways of knowing, doing, and being (which is a more accurate phrase than Indigenous Knowledge), especially when it comes to making wiser decisions about how to best live our lives. For example, one of the books that greatly influenced me during the early days of my research into cross-cultural design and innovation was Treading Lightly: The hidden wisdom of the world's oldest people. [5] A society whose purpose is to maintain the world and keep everybody and everything alive, and has been living that purpose for thousands of generations, is one I believe we should be listening to more carefully.
One question I had for Geoff was how does your proposed dynamic model of wisdom capture the (importance of the) interconnectedness of all things? He notes that "we might understand it more as an emergent property of complex systems.” (p. 29), and I believe he is intimately familiar with the concepts of systems thinking and complex adaptive systems more generally. The First Australian worldview is one that understands the world as a complex system (e.g. First Australians have a relational ontology), so their worldview is highly compatible with many of the assumptions, beliefs and principles of complex adaptive systems in the Western discourse [6]. Would making the interconnection of all things more explicit, through the science of complex adaptive systems or otherwise, help explain why wisdom should be understood as a process of making better decisions; a process that requires feedback loops in order to do so?
Another suggestion was to consider how the Capability Approach (CA) [7] - a normative framework of social justice and ethics which asserts that human development should be concerned with the expansion of freedoms to live a valued life [8] - may be able to support/complement the proposed model for wisdom. Questions such as "wisdom for whom?” or “who decides if the future is better?” lend themselves to the evaluatory framework provided by the CA. The CA also encourages ongoing deliberative participatory processes to identify the valued freedoms, which aligns with the outcome feedback loops that involve integrative judgement.
A Wisdom Revolution then is one that values and considers wisdom in our everyday decision making, especially on matters that have wide impact. For it to be effective, wisdom will need to become more systemic and institutionalised. Geoff Mulgan summarises the role of wise institutions “is to be influencers on other more powerful institutions, and they are expected to reason ethically, to understand multiple perspectives and to take a long view more than mainstream institutions” (p. 34). Also, they should possess the ability "to look and think broadly; and to have multiple channels of feedback which then feed into decisions and actions (in short, the breadth and richness of their [learning] loops)” (p. 37).
The good news is that there are already a number of examples of people and organisations who are helping to create a wiser world. I am humbled to have an honorary role with one institution that is taking a wise approach to the fourth industrial revolution (4IR). In the words of the 3Ai founding director, Distinguished Professor Genevieve Bell: “We know that Ai-powered cyber-physical systems (CPS) will scale in society. The challenge we face now is how we do that responsibly and sustainably? If we act proactively now, we can avoid some of the negative impacts we have seen during other technological leaps.” More broadly, the discourses and movements associated with responsible AI and responsible innovation can also be seen as examples of wisdom in action.
A Narrative based on Connection
All revolutions are powered by a narrative that engages the hearts and minds of the people, in order to create enough systemic change to justify using the term ‘revolution’ in the first place. So what narrative will best help drive and promote the Wisdom Revolution?
My suggestion is to start with a narrative based on connection. This narrative would recognise and celebrate the connections and inter-dependencies between humans, and all other species on this planet, and acknowledges our shared responsibility to maintain and support the health of our collective home - the Earth. Crucially, it simultaneously values our commonalties whilst respecting and celebrating our diversity. We need to be able to draw on the myriad diverse ways of knowing, doing and being to be able to better understand the complex issues and challenges we face, so we can find the most effective and wisest ways to address them. Diversity is essential for creativity and innovation, but it requires respect to be harnessed in this way. Recognising our common humanity and connection with all things can help provide the necessary foundation for responsible innovation.
A narrative based on connection will also emphasise collaboration over competition, restoring a balance between the two that has become warped towards competition by those in favour of unregulated market forces. It will also emphasise (internal, shared) responsibility over (external, individual) accountability. Indeed, the qualities that are emphasised by a narrative of connection align with the ‘human design specifications’ (HDS) promoted by organisational psychologists Alicia Fortinberry and Bob Murray [9]. Our HDS are the biological predispositions that have evolved over millions of years and are encoded in our DNA, so they aren’t easily changed. For example, we have evolved to be mutually interdependent and live in small, mutually supportive bands, whereas we tend to live in large cities and suffer from chronic isolation and loneliness; we have evolved to make decisions on the basis of emotional and relationship needs - not facts or reason; and we have evolved to have fun, to enjoy what we do, to laugh while working together - something most of us rarely experience.
So how does this narrative apply to the future? Historian and author Yuval Noah Harari has noted that the narrative of liberal democracy that has dominated the most economically developed nations on earth since the end of the cold war is under attack by "religious and nationalist fantasies” that seek to exploit the growing populations of the disillusioned and the discontented. Whilst he believes we should defend liberal democracy from such exploitative fantasies, he also thinks "we need to question the traditional assumptions of liberalism, and develop a new political project that is better in line with the scientific realities and technological powers of the 21st century.” [10]
I agree that big data, AI, CPS and other “scientific realities and technological powers of the 21st century” have unprecedented potential to radically change our world, and we need to make sure these technologies are designed and deployed responsibly and wisely. I propose the best way to do this is through the reinforcement of our shared humanity — and our shared existence — via our connection to each other and all other things.
It is important to note that the narrative of connection is compatible with the narrative of democratic liberalism. Indeed, there are some versions of the narrative of democratic liberalism that already incorporate elements of a narrative of connection. My hope is that by making the narrative of connection more explicit, more people will realise the importance of mutual understanding and respect, and the value of working together, rather than succumbing to polarising forces that are working to drive us all apart, weakening everyone. Over time, the narrative of connection may evolve to be more directly concerned with wisdom, but for now at least I believe a narrative of connection is a good place to start. Of course, I am happy to be proven wrong, so please let me know your thoughts!
References
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63657-6 and also https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/01/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating-scientists-warn, and https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0
[3] Though perhaps a more accurate name would be the Wisdom Rediscovery, as for thousands of years Homo Sapiens - Latin for Wise Man - was able to live in harmony with nature and abide by these constraints. In recent times, we have allowed ourselves to be deluded by the myth that we are no longer subject to these constraints.
[4] https://www.geoffmulgan.com/post/a-loop-theory-of-wisdom-how-do-we-respond-to-foolish-times
[6] Tyson Yunkaporta has written on this point in considerable detail in Sand Talk - see: https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/sand-talk
[7] See: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/capability-approach/ and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability_approach, though other ethical frameworks may also be applicable.
[8] As noted in my thesis: "The literature suggests there are two main reasons the capability approach is applicable as an evaluative framework for exploring issues with Indigenous peoples. First, the multi- dimensional nature of the capability approach is compatible with the intrinsically holistic view shared by Indigenous peoples, and second, the explicit provision for Indigenous peoples to define their own capabilities.” (p. 80) Retrieved from: https://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/handle/2123/13361
[9] Murray, Bob and Fortinberry, Alicia (2019). The Human Science of Strategy: what works and what doesn’t. Ark Group. ISBN: 9781783583829. https://fortinberry-murray.myshopify.com/
[10] https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/sep/14/yuval-noah-harari-the-new-threat-to-liberal-democracy